## Friday, October 10, 2008

### Main Components of Time Series

What are the main components or methods of time Series

1. Secular trend or Trend method :-

Secular trend is basic tendency to grow or decline over a period of time. Its other name is trend or long term trend .In this trend we ignore short term fluctuations but we see the tendency of data in long period

◘ Trend may be up-word or down word

◘ If we show the trend series on the graph paper , we will take time on x’ax and data on y’ax and make the trend live .This trend line is called linear line .

◘ In maths language linear line = y = a+bx if b is positive the trend will positive .If b is negative trend will be negative.

Measurement /Method of trend :-

i) Free hand graphic method:-

In this method we can get trend by making graph on x’ax , we take time and on y’ax we take the data after this we plotted original points . After this a smooth straight line is drawn passing between the original graph . This line is called trend line .
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